It is widely understood in the world of politics the new President’s party will almost certainly take a beating at the polls in the following midterms, no matter how well their first two years in office go. The singular counter example of this is George W. Bush, who was headed towards the same destiny, until September 11, 2001, resulted in record high approval ratings for the majority of incumbents.
Naturally, we are headed towards a Red Wave in November 2022.
Besides the tendency for the party in power to face opposition during midterms, another well known truth is that voters vote with their pocketbook. With inflation at a forty year high, gas prices nearly doubling over one year, rent tripling in the last 10 years, and increasingly bare and depressing shelves at retail and grocery store things are depressing. We are headed towards a Red Wave.
On almost every important issue Americans are unhappy with the current administration. There are a dozen foreign affairs leaving a bad taste in voter’s mouths. Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Iran, Haiti, Afghanistan, Libya, Australia, Mexico, and CANADA! Domestically we are more divided than we were when Trump was in office. Crime is through the roof, coronavirus issues continue to be muddy and confusing at best, deceptive and criminal at worst, reports coming out of Washington regarding Hillary’s involvement with a “Watergate on steroids” allegation does not look good, and people are generally unhappy. Most importantly, people’s perception is local. School board meetings have turned into psychological warfare, schools are becoming battlefields, fast food restaurants are closing at 6pm because they don’t have any employees, people are getting shot at the gas station because they aren’t wearing their mask, and car accidents and violence are incredibly more prevalent in almost every major city nationwide.
We are headed towards a Red Wave.
Not so fast, the game has changed… a lot. Let us not forget, elections will be quite different in 2022. Maybe not starkly different from 2020, but literally felonious compared to 2018.
Up until now It has been universally illegal for anyone but a family member to deliver a ballot on behalf of someone else. The extreme example of such a practice would be ballot harvesting. A term referencing mass collection of ballots whereby the collector, or harvester, has custody of the ballot and has the authorization to turn it over to election officials.
Why has ballot harvesting been illegal? The reasons are both obvious and textured. First, the obvious. Ballot collectors could and likely would undoubtedly be political operatives with loyalty and a clear cut bias to one political party. Either party, Republican or Democrat. Second, the textured. Are all of these people worthy of the immense trust being afforded to them? Are we certain they would not “lose” a ballot if they knew it was not for their candidate?
After skipping the innumerable chain of custody, identification or signature verification, and mishap possibilities, we can address voter intimidation. Are we certain a collector won’t try to convince a senior citizen or a timid immigrant to vote and vote “correctly?” We can’t have party affiliated people with logos at polling places, but we are going to send operatives to people’s homes or nursing homes at night to collect mass mailed out ballots?
and how can I forget Nevada Assembly Bill 321…
Besides legalizing ballot harvesting, our Governor and state legislature passed a law requiring the mass mailing of ballots to every registered voter in Nevada and the right for the voter to authorize someone else to turn their ballot in. This new law ensures there will be millions of outstanding ballots, all over the state, while harvesters are canvassing neighborhoods over the course of an entire month. That’s right, election day will now essentially last one full month.
Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, who has proven to not be a thorn in the opposing parties side, did plead with Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak to implement some obvious safeguards while allowing these two experimental procedures, but was quickly quieted when Steve Sisolak pulled the proverbial race card and accused her of pushing for minority voter suppression.
As of right now, barring a drastic change in Nevada we will have mass mail out and main in ballots and legal ballot harvesting over the course of a month, the new month-long election day. An idea and plan almost as foolish as having open borders and a welfare state. Either one is untenable but both are simply unsustainable.
Regardless of how Americans feel about the way the country is being run these policies overwhelmingly help democrats, as population density is directly proportional to leaning or voting democrats. Therefore, ballot collections will be exponentially more effective in urban blue areas than rural red areas. The 2020 election was razor thin in Nevada. From Donald Trump and the Presidency to Stavros Anthony and the County Commission. Thin enough that every policy change, minor or major, and headline could change the results in Nevada. Assembly Bill 321 is the definition of a massive change. While I fully expect a large Red Wave in the country, I can’t help but wonder if the new mail in and pro ballot harvesting rules pushed through with Assembly Bill 321 may put Nevada Democrats on “higher ground” and safe from Red Wave ‘22.
If you would like to get more involved in the election process, kindly reach out to your local county or state party.